Monday, May 17, 2010

WHEW!

Ok we went down hard but luckily came back before the close. Silver started to dip so I sold out for a $17 loss. NOW is the time to buy FLS. I placed a buy limit order after the bell for a July $120 call. Take a look at the chart below.
















Well folks that is a clear bounce that happened today. Don't get me wrong, I don't expect FLS to reach $120 by July BUT I do think this bounce will be good for a 5 to 6 dollar move. With a Delta of .16 and a Gamma of .16 a $5 move in FLS theoretically could yeild $240 in profit, 200% return on investment.
I saw some guy on Fast Money today saying he's bearish on Gold. While he's one of the few I do think were approaching extreme highs and may see a pullback soon. I have no trade to offer on this I just wanted to express my opinion.
I also like AMZN at these levels (If I could ever afford the option premiums)

Sunday, May 16, 2010

Sell off

Wow! Asia sold off hard and it looks like Europe is following next.. Will evaluate my positions in the morning. Be careful traders this could be a bloody Monday

Friday Update

Well MSFT retraced in its channel like I predicted and I sold the option for a $19 loss. Added an IMAX June $15 put as a hedge and a June $17.50 call on SWC. I bought the SWC call because I believe its quite undervalued and has a lot of upside potential. Dow closed down 163 off the lows of the day. I think we saw a lot of selling because of the uncertainty in the market and people not wanting to hold positions over the weekend. I predict we will see a continued move higher next week.

This week is my last week of finals and then I'm done with school. Wish me luck!

Thursday, May 13, 2010

Sorry for the absence of posts

Today has been a busy week for me. I was offered and accepted a summer internship at Morgan Stanley that I am VERY excited about. I hope this will open up tremendous opportunities for me. I also read the book "The Ultimate Gift" which solidified my life goal of wanting to help other people.

Now back to trading. My current positions are as follows.

Asset Description Enter Price Current Price P/L
SIRI June $1 Call .17 .11 -   $11.86
GMCR May $95 Call 2.02 .04 - $197.93
IMAX Sept $19 Call 2.32 2.85 +  $53.07
SLV June $21 Call .33 .23 -     $9.93
MSFT July $31 Call .58 .44 -   $13.93

Total P/L for open positions: -$180.58
I'm still holding the GMCR position just to see if I can squeeze a couple more points to ease the loss. I entered the silver trade to capture the big move up in gold but I think I will close the trade soon, possibly tomorrow because I don't like the way it's trading. IMAX has begun its steady move higher and that September option will turn out to be a big profit. Below is the daily chart for MSFT
















Actually, after reviewing this chart, I am unsure as to why I entered this trade mid channel. This is usually not the way I like to play channeling stocks. Tomorrow I will place a tight stop loss on this order to ensure I don't get caught in a mid channel pullback. Also take a look at how long it took the stock to rise from channel bottom to channel top in previous instances. Approximately 2 months the first time and 2 and a half the second time. This current move from channel bottom does not look as the other two did. This sharp upward price movement could possibly stall before reaching resistance and I don't want to get caught in that.

I have a lot of cash on the sidelines waiting for a trading opportunity and as safety. I don't see many opportunities presenting themselves right now so I will wait. Goodnight!

Monday, May 10, 2010

Daily Update

Today the market gaped up HUGE at open and actually closed near the day's high. This tells me that the markets are still strong and we will probably not see a double dip. Will watch the markets during this week for confirmation of this. Bought back into IMAX today with the September $19 calls @ $2.30 and here is why:
“Iron Man 2” — May 7
“Shrek Forever After” — May 21
“Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time” — May 28
“Toy Story 3” — June 18
“The Twilight Saga: Eclipse” — June 30

BaBAM! This summer line up is going to absolutely murder at the box office. Not only that but Iron Man 2 grossed $10.2million beating Avatar which earned $9.5million which opened on 2 fewer screens. WOW! In my opinion when a movie comes anywhere close to Avatar, you better be invested.
My current open positions are:
IMAX September 19 call @ 2.30
EJ August 17.50 call @ .85
(2) SIRI June 1.00 calls @ .15
GMCR May 95 call @ 2.00

If you have been following my blog you know that my GMCR trade absolutely killed my account. Not only that but my overweight IMAX positions suffered horribly last week. Luckily I purchased a hedge on my IMAX positions and was able to pull 200% off of it. In all of this turmoil I actually believe I am becoming a better trader. I am becoming wiser to how certain stocks react (especially IMAX). Today when I decided I wanted to get back into IMAX I held off entering and actually pulled the trigger at the low of the day. Normally I would have jumped in as soon as I saw IMAX gap up as it did this morning. Patience and knowing how IMAX trades helped me get in at a great value.

Today I began researching 4G wireless internet especially LTE (Long Term Evolution). 4G is the next generation of faster, bigger bandwidth, wireless internet. Currently wireless hotspots have a range of a couple hundred feet. LTE and WiMax have ranges of around 3 to 5 miles with speeds up to 1 gigabyte per second!!! Everything I read about wireless internet I always hear about bandwidth problems especially with AT&T and the iPhone and recently released iPad. Sprint has already begun to roll out their 4G network and Verizon and AT&T are close behind. In searching for a way to invest in this technology I finally settled on Qualcomm (QCOM). 23% of QCOM's revenue comes from China and they are currently making LTE mobile chips. Not only is QCOM a blue-chip company, but they stand to profit handsomely from the 4G revolution. I am looking to invest in some far out LEAPS to try and capture this move to 4G in the next couple years. Will advise further as I collect more information.

I have finals this week and the next so I will be quite busy with school. I will keep an eye on the markets as this is a very exciting time :)

Thursday, May 6, 2010

Holy Crap

WOW. If you didn't watch the market today turn on your TV because I'm sure they are still talking about it. DOW dropped 998.50 points intra-day. VIX was up the highest in a year around 41-42. From what I know now there was a faulty trade on PG where a trader at a big firm entered a 16 B as in billion instead of million on an e-mini. A lot of rumors going around saying it was CITI. CTL traded down to a penny which HAS to be a market error. NASDAQ is saying there were no errors on their end. I could not get through over the phone to my broker. I could get no trades placed. I have no idea what my options are worth at this point. My broker was showing spreads on my options of up to $105!!! We're going to be hearing about this for a while.  CNBC is saying that some stocks actually traded at ZERO. Tell me that's not a computer error. LOL I just heard some guy on the floor of the NYSE on CNBC yelling "That's why we need people" hahah very good point, we can't let computers do everything. NYSE traded 2.5 bill shares

Dow closed the day at 10,520 down 347 so we made back a lot of the losses.
I will post later if I can figure out what I own is actually worth.
Stock Twits is selling "I survived the crash of 2:45pm" t-shirts hahahaha.

Tuesday, May 4, 2010

Daily Update

IPI posted earnings of .16 a share beating analysts estimates. IPI is currently trading up .75 (+2.04%) in A.H.
FLS did break through 112 to the downside but I was away from my desk when it happened. I'm kind of glad I didn't sell because the stock bounced hard 109.10 (see chart) FLS is down another .57 in after hours.
















I like my IPI calls, I like my FLS calls, and I like my IMAX calls... sort of. I say sort of because they are currently red on my screen, but I believe that will change with time :)

The big story right now is ITMN which is down $34 or 74.85% in after hours! They have created a drug called Esbriet™ for the treatment of patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis or IPF, to stunt decline in lung function. The FDA released a complete response letter requesting additional clinical trail to support the efficacy of Esbriet™ in IPF patients. ITMN has stated that they will meet with the FDA as soon as possible to address the points they made and what they need to do to achieve approval. A lot of people have made some SERIOUS money shorting and buying puts on this stock. I am quite interested to see how this pans out so I will keep you updated.

-JD out

Markets open lower

Wow the markets are down huge right now. Entered a long position in IPI and FLS watching closely to see if they will break levels and trend lower. IMAX is getting beat up currently at 18.57
IPI releases earnings after the close with an estimate of .14 Not sure if I want to hold IPI into earnings with a market like this.

Monday, May 3, 2010

One more thing!

Take a look at USO trying to test that 52 week high again...

Update

Today I wasn't able to be at my desk today because I was attending meetings to apply for summer internships in my area. I visited Scottrade, Edward Jones, Fidelity, and TD Ameritrade.  However I have been facing a problem. The majority of these firm have internships which they gear towards individuals with a degree, who they can train throughout the internship in hopes of hiring them when they complete the program. Me being a 2nd year college student, with no experience in the finance industry (other then my trading) fall behind these other people. Also a lot of nationwide firms want you to apply for internships and jobs online. I think this is absurd. How can you judge someone by a screen? Also, how much effort does it show that you created a profile and clicked "apply" for a job? At least in person they know you were proactive enough to get off your ass and get yourself to the office. Hopefully I will be able to find someone who will let me intern despite being a current student. All I really want is to learn. I don't need a salary, I don't need to be promised a job (although that would be nice), I just want to surround myself with people who know the industry. Is that so much to ask?

Anyway, back to trading.
After suffering my loss from GS last week, I closed most of my trades and now only hold positions in IMAX, SIRI, and GMCR in hopes it will rebound a little bit before expiration. I have also purchased a hedge on my IMAX play to protect myself from a further move to the downside.

Three stocks I have been watching closely are IPI, FLS, and GDX.
Here's a 15min chart of IPI, below is an hourly chart to give you the big picture. IPI didn't hit off its support but it looks as it might trend up further. I am watching IPI to make a long position if it breaks $20.
















Hourly chart
















FLS hourly chart. Dipped quite a bit below the 116 mark before popping back above in today's trading session. Still watching, no opinion yet.
















GDX hourly chart. Bounced off 51.30 which was also bounced off of back in January. Not ready to enter this yet. Moves to the downside are not as strong as moves to the upside in this stock. I had entered a put trade in GDX last week but sold once it crossed the 51.30 level. This will probably turn out to be a profitable trade but I have no problem with the loss I took.
















Have a meeting tomorrow at Morgan Stanley and again at TD Ameritrade. Wish me luck! :)